From Nomi “I want to thank everyone who made a public comment, testified or sent an email to the MICRC. Every commissioner stated that input from citizens via testimony and public comment heavily informed their decision. I have no doubt that the VAAC community had a major impact on the entire process. This was an amazing example of the power this community has.

The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC) has voted and has adopted new maps! It is not surprising that the new maps have been met with mixed reviews. Lawsuits were filed almost immediately after the maps were adopted. Those suing the MICRC claim that there are not enough Voting Rights Acts districts (VRA’s) and that the criteria MICRC used to determine VRA’s was based on bad legal advice. At issue is what percent of non-White voters must be present to comprise a VRA.

This is the space where the interests of partisan fairness, and the desire to have more BIPOC representation, collide. Having BIPOC voters packed into fewer districts would likely have the effect of electing more BIPOC candidates during contested primary elections. However, unpacking BIPOC voters would result in electing more Democrats.

Many people also anticipate lawsuits to be filed from the opponents of Proposition 2 who never wanted the MICRC to be created in the first place.

It is anybody’s guess what the outcome of lawsuits will be, but I think most legal experts expect the maps to proceed as adopted by the MICRC. Incumbents and candidates are certainly proceeding under the assumption that these new maps are here to stay for the next decade.

The specifics of the partisan divide is impossible to predict. This will depend on a myriad of factors including: who relocates in order to run in a new district and how successful each party is at getting their supporters out to vote. So far, it appears that there will be several uncomfortable primaries on both sides of the aisle. There is no doubt that both sides will lose some of their beloved incumbents. The new Congressional map leaves 7 of the 14 incumbents living in a district with another incumbent. It also creates 2 districts where no incumbent currently lives. Michigan’s only Black Congressperson, Brenda Lawrence has already announced that she will not seek reelection. Rashida Tlaib has announced that she plans to move to the new 12^th district (where Lawrence lives.) This leaves the 13^th district with no incumbent. Several people have already filed and other are eyeing the seat. Democrats Haley Stevens and Andy Levin will now be facing off in a primary in the new 11^th District. On the west side, Republicans Bill Huizenga and Michigan’s current longest serving incumbent, Fred Upton now reside in the same district. Moderate Republican, Upton has not yet announced if he plans to run for reelection.

The state maps also leave several incumbents living in the same district. For example, three incumbent Senators now live in the same district. Senator Rosemary Bayer (D) has decided to relocate in order to avoid the three-way primary. She will be running in the W. Bloomfield/Sylvan Lake area. Senators Mallory McMorrow (D) and Marshall Bullock (D) are currently planning to face off in that primary.

On a personal note, I can say that these maps are not as good as I had hoped, but not as bad as I expected. I would have liked to see more partisan fairness and more VRA’s. Prison gerrymandering is not addressed in any of these maps. Most likely, the Congressional map will result in electing 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans The Republicans will probably retain control of Michigan’s state House. And Democrats are predicted to win a very slight majority in Michigan’s state Senate.  Of course, these are only speculations and it is impossible to know for sure.

-Nomi Joyrich, MUUSJN

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As social scientists, Kramer and Remster created a model for estimating the impact of prison gerrymandering on legislative representation. This model was vigorously peer reviewed and published in a leading social science journal (Remster and Kramer 2018).

Kramer and Remster applied their model to two of the MICRC draft maps and presented the following findings to the commission. To read the full report, click here.

1. Unlike other states we have analyzed, because Michigan’s Commission did not pack people of color into urban districts, none of the districts grew large enough after our analyses to become legally too large. However, we are concerned that State House Districts 9 and 73 grow close to that cut off, within 1000 residents of the maximum size, using our conservative estimation strategy. District 9 is majority Black and District 73 has more residents of color than the state as a whole (34% compared to roughly 25%).
2. On the other hand, proposed House Districts 107 and 70 have such a large portion of their population incarcerated that they would be constitutionally too small were Michigan to reallocate incarcerated individuals to their home communities. Both 107 and 70 would be more than 1500 residents short of the district size cut-off if it weren’t for incarcerated persons. Moreover, these two proposed districts are disproportionately non-Hispanic white whereas incarcerated Michiganians are disproportionately Black and Latinx.
3. These impacts are not a simple urban/rural divide. Most rural districts do not contain prisons—only 15 House Districts and 10 Senate Districts have state prison facilities of any size—which means that most rural residents’ representation is negatively affected by counting incarcerated people where they are confined. In fact, most Michigan residents have less representation because of this policy whereas a small portion have more representation simply because they live near a prison.
4. Figure 1 shows that counting incarcerated people in correctional facilities boosts white representation across the board. Although only districts with prisons benefit, the average white Michigander lives in a house district that has 56 more residents than it would without prison gerrymandering. For senate districts, the average white resident has 30 more people.
5. Counting incarcerated people in correctional facilities harms Black representation in Michigan (see Figure 1). The average Black Michigander lives in a house district that has 316 fewer residents because of prison gerrymandering. Their senate district also has on average 712 fewer residents. Because incarcerated individuals, their families, friends, even their crime victims, typically congregate in the same neighborhood, legislators representing Black communities often have more constituents requesting support services compared to legislators representing white communities, especially those with a prison in their district. This policy punishes every single resident of a district that is heavily policed, regardless of whether they have ever been incarcerated. Combined with residential segregation, Black Michigan residents have less representation than white residents because of where incarcerated people are counted.

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